Tampa’s economy is thriving, driven by strong population growth and business investment. Now the second most populous market in Florida, the region has over 3.4 million residents, with Hillsborough and Pasco counties adding the most in recent years. While migration has slowed since 2022, Tampa continues to outpace the national growth rate, fueled by retirees and working-age groups. Companies like Foot Locker, GEICO, and Pfizer have expanded operations, while large retailers have built major distribution centers to serve the growing population. Education and healthcare remain leading industries, anchored by the University of South Florida and major hospital systems, ensuring Tampa’s economy stays diverse and resilient.

 

Tampa Demographics

Source: CoStar Group, Inc.

• Unemployment Rate: 3.7%
• Current Population: 3,466,857
• Households: 1,413,156
• Median Household Income: $76,828

 

Population, Labor, and Income Growth

Source: CoStar Group, Inc.

 

Key Findings

• The majority of transactions over the past year have been for single-tenant, NNN lease investments that traded for under $5 million.
• Tampa’s retail vacancy rate held steady at 3.4%, one of the lowest in the U.S., reflecting strong tenant demand and limited available space.
• The market recorded $332 million in sales volume during Q3 2025, with cap rates averaging 6.5%, signaling investor confidence and competitive demand.

 

Market Performance

Tampa’s retail market remained one of the tightest in the nation throughout Q3 2025, with a vacancy rate of 3.4%, holding steady from the prior quarter and marking a modest improvement year-over-year. Net absorption registered 74,200 square feet, reflecting continued but moderating demand compared to earlier gains. Despite this, asking rents continued to rise, benefiting from limited available space, although quarterly growth decelerated slightly from Q2 2025.

 

On a year-over-year basis, rent growth remained solid, underscoring landlords’ pricing power in a supply-constrained environment. With 728,000 square feet under construction, new deliveries are limited relative to inventory, ensuring vacancy stability and sustaining upward rent pressure across Tampa’s retail market.

 

Tampa Retail Supply & Demand Dynamics

Source: CoStar Group, Inc.

 

Tampa Construction

In Q3 2025, Tampa’s retail construction sector remained steady, with 728,000 square feet under construction across the market. During the quarter, developers added 82,700 square feet, signaling moderate but ongoing additions to the retail inventory. While new supply entered the market, overall activity was balanced, reflecting developers’ cautious but confident approach given Tampa’s strong fundamentals and low vacancy environment. The construction pipeline remains a key driver of growth, ensuring new retail options for tenants, while helping sustain competitiveness and future market resilience.

 

SF Construction Starts

Source: CoStar Group, Inc.

 

SF Under Construction

Source: CoStar Group, Inc.

 

Sales

Tampa’s retail investment market remained active in the third quarter, with sales volume reaching $332 million. Investor confidence held firm as the sector continued to attract capital, supported by strong underlying fundamentals and limited vacancy. Additionally, out-of-market private investors accounted for the majority of deals over the past 12 months. The average cap rate of 6.5% reflected stable pricing expectations, underscoring steady demand for retail assets even amid a competitive investment environment. As Tampa’s population continues to grow, the metro will remain a top market for retail sales.

 

Tampa Retail Sales Volume

Source: CoStar Group, Inc.