Despite a wave of store closures at the beginning of 2025, retail recorded an absorption comeback in the second half of the year. The median timeframe to lease fell to under seven months, a historic low, with high-quality locations leasing in less than five months. Leasing volume throughout 2025 was dominated by smaller-format and in-line spaces, followed by properties over 25,000 square feet.

 

This report highlights top tenants to watch through 2026. These tenants vary from small-format to large-format properties, and have demonstrated the ability to grow despite economic headwinds and maintain stability in order to best serve consumers.

 

U.S. Retail Bounced Back in H2 2025

Source: CoStar Group, Inc. | 2020-Q4 2025 QTD

 

Tracking QSR Developments

Dutch Bros

Originally from Oregon, Dutch Bros began operations in 1992. The popular coffee chain has since branched out to several states, including Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, Ohio, and Indiana. Now, Dutch Bros is growing in the Midwest and East Coast, expanding operations in Virginia, Missouri, and Illinois.

 

Since 2019, Dutch Bros visits are up nearly 300%, partly due to its smaller starting footprint. The brand benefits from a broader rise of grab-and-go dining and short visits, which dominates U.S. food service behavior. The small-format, drive-thru focused model also matches consumer preferences for speed and convenience. This format aligns the most with Gen Z, which drives the majority of visits at Dutch Bros locations.

 

Dutch Bros’ expansion goals include doubling its footprint by 2029, which would lead it to record 2,029 locations by that year—one of the most aggressive growth plans in the coffee sector. The chain also projects reaching $2.6 billion in revenue and $197.4 million in earnings by 2028. This plan would require 21.8% yearly revenue growth and a $140.2 million increase in earnings from the current $57.2 million. In order to achieve this momentum, Dutch Bros plans on growing its food offerings, focusing on mobile ordering, and launching consumer packaged goods to increase its appeal.

 

Dutch Bros Records 270% Growth in Monthly Visits From 2019-2025

Source: Placer.ai | January 2019-October 2025

 

Raising Cane’s

The popular fried chicken chain exceeded its goal of opening 100 stores in 2024 and opened 118 restaurants instead. Its top-performing locations have been Dallas-Fort Worth, Orlando, and Atlanta, with suburban strip centers and drive-thru sites recording the most traffic.

 

High visits per revenue contribute to above-average restaurant profitability relative to many other fast casual and QSR concepts. Raising Cane’s recorded visits grew from about 189.5 million in 2019 to 490.3 million in 2024, almost double the foot traffic in five years. The chain also stands out from other competitors as a majority of locations are company-owned. When current leadership joined, about 25% of locations were franchised. Today, only about 3% are franchised, a rare structure in the QSR sector.

 

As Raising Cane’s grows, its long-term goals include having over 1,600 restaurants across the U.S. New additions will be focused on New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Ohio, Florida, Washington, D.C., and New York. To meet its goals, Raising Cane’s is prioritizing building restaurants in high-traffic areas, as well as developing more drive-thru sites. Other moves include growing its presence in stadiums, airports, and near college campuses. One example is its addition in Seattle’s University District, which is slated to open in early 2026 and will also be one of the chain’s first locations in Washington.

 

Raising Cane’s Dominates Visits Within National Chicken QSRs

Source: Placer.ai | YTD, January 2025 to November 2025

 

CAVA

Since opening as a full-service Mediterranean restaurant in 2006, CAVA has become a QSR chain with 439 locations across 29 states. Its growth has been focused on adding sites in suburban markets, and increasing its drive-thru lanes and digital ordering to boost foot traffic. With this movement, CAVA is on track to reach its goal of at least 1,000 locations by 2032.

 

CAVA acquired Zoës Kitchen in 2018 for $300 million to aid its growth plans. Conversions for the acquired locations began in 2020, and more than 250 sites were transformed. Other growth methods include the investment in AI-assisted prep and kitchen display systems to improve guests’ experiences and increase visits. CAVA has also added new menu options to grow consumer appeal, like the addition of grilled steak and chicken shawarma.

 

With CAVA focusing its growth on suburban markets, its visitor demographics set the tenant up for success in its expansions. Since 2019, CAVA noted the median household income for its visitors decreased from around $120K to $95K in 2025. The decline demonstrates how the chain is increasingly targeting middle-income families in the suburbs. Additionally, CAVA’s focus on suburban areas has aided its operations to prioritize speed and convenience. The addition of drive-thrus in its suburban stores dropped its dwell time to 28 minutes in Q3 2025. This new dwell time is significant as it demonstrates CAVA’s ability to serve its customers that dine in, together with those that get their order to go.

 

CAVA’s Dwell Time Reflects Efficiency and Suburban Prioritization

Source: Placer.ai

 

McDonald’s

While the U.S. houses more than 13,000 McDonald’s locations, the chain plans to open 900 new restaurants by 2027. Its new additions will be focused on suburban and exurban areas that record population growth. The chain first announced its strategy for growth in 2020, with its focus on the three D’s: digital, delivery, and drive-thru.

 

The digital growth method includes the implementation of the “MyMcDonald’s” mobile app. Customers will have the option to join a loyalty program and order food for pickup via MyMcDonald’s. The app will also aid the delivery segment of the chain’s growth plans as users can order food to their homes, and the company’s partnership with Uber Eats and DoorDash will create additional
delivery options.

 

With about 95% of its U.S. locations featuring a drive-thru, McDonald’s has begun testing new ways to make the ordering process more convenient at these sites. Enhancements to its drive-thru restaurants include a pickup lane for online orders. As pickup orders are separate from the regular lane, these formats reduce confusion and shorten wait times. The commitment to upgrading the physical format increases the value of the real estate by improving site efficiency, transaction capacity, and overall revenue potential per location.

 

McDonald’s Annual Revenue Performance

Source: Stock Analysis

 

Grocers Aid Shopping Center Performance

Sprouts

In order to achieve its long-term goal of opening 1,400 locations nationwide, Sprouts recently grew its headquarters in Phoenix to aid its expansion efforts and also began adding stores across the metro. Apart from growing in its home state, Sprouts is targeting the Midwest and Northeast for expansions. New additions in both regions will be added in 2026 and 2027.

 

As part of its expansion plan, Sprouts has focused on opening stores within 250 miles of a distribution center to create efficient supply chains. Locations near distribution centers lead to a quicker delivery, ensuring that the produce and goods are fresh for arrival at the store. In order to attract more customers, Sprouts is prioritizing new stores in areas with a high population density. The grocer also launched Sprouts Rewards in summer 2025—a loyalty program to maintain and expand its consumer base.

 

The long-term goal of opening 1,400 stores creates substantial demand for new retail space, driving up property values and securing long-term leases for landlords in high population density areas where Sprouts is prioritizing its sites. Its real estate strategy of clustering new stores within 250 miles of a distribution center makes these specific locations more desirable and valuable to developers and investors. This focus on supply chain efficiency minimizes operational risks for the tenant, ensuring the store remains consistently profitable, which translates to stable rental income and a high-quality anchor tenant that increases foot traffic and value for surrounding retail properties.

 

Aldi

The discount grocer increasingly developed new locations across the country in recent years, due to its customer appeal for lower-priced goods and its acquisition methods. Aldi’s major acquisitions occurred in 2023 when it bought Southeastern Grocers, which included Winn-Dixie and Harveys Supermarket stores. All of the acquired locations are expected to be fully transformed to the Aldi brand by 2027.

 

Together with the acquired stores, Aldi plans on opening more than 800 locations nationally by 2028. Its primary areas for growth are the Southeast, Northeast, and West Coast. Aldi has begun remodeling and updating its existing stores to improve customers’ experiences and reach its expansion goal. Updates across the grocer include expanding the product assortment, with a significant increase in fresh food options to meet evolving consumer demand.

 

Between 2019 and 2024, while overall grocery foot traffic increased by 11%, Aldi’s surged by more than 51%, demonstrating rapid acceleration in consumer adoption. Through November 2025, its U.S. stores attracted 865 million visits, making it one of the most visited grocers nationally, despite only having around 2% of U.S. grocery market share. With double-digit growth in foot traffic, Aldi is a powerful anchor for shopping centers. For investors, its long-term NNN leases and corporate-owned models offer a stable, low management, and reliable income stream.

 

Aldi Leads Discount Grocer Visits

Source: Placer.ai | YTD, January 2025 to November 2025

 

Discount Chains Thrive on Consumer Demand

Five Below

Consumers have increased their visits to Five Below for its variety of lower-priced products, including toys, apparel, snacks, accessories, and more. As visits have risen, Five Below has shifted its long-term goal to opening 3,500 stores by 2030. The retailer is focusing its efforts on entering new markets like the Pacific Northwest, with eight locations across Washington and one in Oregon.

 

To increase its product options, the retailer has implemented the “Five Beyond” concept across its stores. This method includes selling products priced between $5 and $10, including tech goods, clothing, and home decor. Five Below has also begun investing in building distribution centers across the country to aid its growth, with one of the newest facilities located in Buckeye, Arizona.

 

With the high cost of goods, Five Below is set to benefit from consumers searching for lower-priced items. With customers attracted to Five Below for its value-driven and expansive product assortment, the tenant will continue to enhance the overall value and desirability of its respective shopping center.

 

Five Below Sets Bold Goal: 3,500 Stores by 2030

 

Dollar General

With more than 20,000 stores nationwide, Dollar General is one of the top-performing discount stores. About 20% of its total locations have been developed since 2020, with the chain adding around 900 stores each year. However, Dollar General decelerated growth in 2024, but rose again in 2025 with the addition of about 500 stores. Looking ahead, the chain plans on opening 575 stores in 2026.

 

Part of Dollar General’s successful expansions can be attributed to its Project Elevate initiative. The movement involves remodeling around 2,250 existing locations to enhance merchandise and the store’s location, as well as fully remodeling about 2,000 sites. Dollar General has allocated over $1 billion in order to support its growth. Another new refinement method is same-day delivery. Dollar General is testing out this service across 75 locations and plans to expand it to thousands of its stores if results prove to be successful.

 

Expansions have resulted in significant rent increases. Across new stores, rents rose by 15.05% in 2024, due to the remodeling initiative, persistent inflation, and the price to build. Dollar General stores on the West Coast recorded the greatest jump in rents, with rent averages of $190,125 in 2025. However, new stores will boost investor appeal by including 15-year NNN leases with 5% escalations every five years.

 

Remodeling of 2,250 Stores Outpaces Dollar Tree’s Remodel of 2,000 Locations

 

7-Eleven’s New Look

7-Eleven is transforming its locations to become more modern, increasing consumer appeal. The remodeled sites will feature a larger product assortment and expanded food and beverage options, including in-store restaurants and seating areas, with the goal of enhancing customers’ experiences and boosting sales.

 

With this movement in mind, 7-Eleven aims to open around 1,300 stores in North America by 2030, adding 200 locations per year. Another part of the goal will be the debut of 500 new food-focused stores opening between 2025 and 2027. These locations are dubbed “New Standard” stores, and will include features like increased fuel offerings and convenient digital payment methods for goods. New Standard stores will also feature a 7-Eleven branded QSR, like Laredo Taco, as well as freshly made grab-and-go offerings like breaded chicken salads and smoked turkey sandwiches, along with 7-Eleven’s famed egg sandwiches.

 

The newly-opened stores with this format have already proved their success. In August, Seven & i Holdings Co. President and CEO Stephen Dacus said these new locations were bringing in 45% higher sales per store than the retailer’s traditional stores. As the revamped format continues to attract more customers, 7-Eleven will vacate around 1,000 of its stores built before 2000 in order to prioritize the growth of New Standard locations.

 

An additional part of 7-Eleven’s growth plan is extending its reach to serve truck drivers across the country. Its first truck stops began operating in 2021, and current sites include over 392 Speedway locations and select 7-Eleven stores across 26 states, with plans to grow to over 500 locations. These properties will cater to logistics companies by offering fuel card programs like its Mastercard that will provide discounts for businesses to track fuel expenses, together with amenities for truck drivers.

 

Revamped Models Feature Long-Term Leases with High Value

 

The Expansion of Take 5 Oil Change

Take 5 Oil Change has steadily risen in franchise ranking, climbing from No. 42 in 2022 to No. 27 in 2025 on Entrepreneur’s fastest-growing franchises list. The Louisiana-based firm has attracted consumers for its promise to fulfill a convenient drive-thru, five-minute oil change, which has led to more than 1,200 locations nationwide under its parent company, Driven Brands.

 

Take 5’s growth began with its purchase of Fast Track Oil Change Centers in 2019, acquiring 27 stores. Now, Driven Brands has stated its goal is to double the number of Take 5 locations by early 2029. A significant portion of recent additions are developed by franchisees who have signed agreements for hundreds of new stores.

 

Throughout 2025, several notable trends shaped the tenant’s performance and market positioning. Franchise brands reported a 2.3% decline in revenue, driven by a reduction in the weighted average royalty rate, while acquisition activity around Take 5 Oil Change sites remained strong. This activity was largely fueled by bonus depreciation, which continued to attract investors seeking accelerated first-year tax advantages. Pricing for these assets has held steady, with corporate-guaranteed leases trading around a 5.92% cap rate since early 2024 and franchisee-backed stores trading 30 to 35 basis points wider. Operationally, the tenant’s adjusted EBITDA margin fell by 85 basis points in Q3 2025 compared to the prior year, reflecting increased store-level expenses and the impact of ongoing growth initiatives.

 

For investors navigating the automotive net lease sector, Take 5 offers a rare mix of stability, scalability, and upside. In a market that rewards clarity and fundamentals, few brands are moving as fast as Take 5. Its growth and proven model speak for themselves, and with strong credit, solid residual value, and market liquidity, these assets continue to stand out as prime investment opportunities.

 

Take 5 Financial Overview

Source: GuruFocus | Q3 2025

• Revenue: $535.7M, up 6.6% YOY
• Free Cash Flow: $51.9M
• Same-Store Sales Growth: 3% overall. 19th consecutive quarter of growth
• Net New Stores: 167 over the last 12 months, including 39 additions in Q3 2025

 

Resilience and Progress: Retail’s Next Chapter

The performance of these 10 national retailers underscores the resilience and strategic growth defining the retail sector. Despite a challenging start to 2025, the market rebounded strongly, demonstrating that consumer demand remains robust for convenience, value, and experience. From the aggressive drive-thru and digital-focused expansion of QSR chains, to the targeted new market focus of grocers like Sprouts and Aldi, a clear pattern emerges: the tenants driving national growth are those prioritizing adaptability, efficiency, and customers’ experiences. For investors, developers, and landlords, monitoring the footprints of these companies will be essential to capitalizing on the sector’s continued upward trajectory.